📉📈 Navigating the New Normal: Key Insights from the 2025 Art Market Report
Words by Roland-Philippe Kretzschmar, The Art Bystander
The 2025 edition of the Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report, authored by Dr. Clare McAndrew of Arts Economics, paints a sobering yet nuanced picture of a global art world in flux. After two post-pandemic boom years, 2024 saw the art market contract for a second consecutive year. But within the contraction lies a quiet reshaping—one that might just define the future of collecting, dealing, and creating art.
Here’s what we at The Art Bystander found most striking—and what it might mean for artists, collectors, curators, and market insiders.
🧨 2024: The Year the High-End Faltered
Global art sales dropped 12% to $57.5 billion, driven mainly by a cooling high-end market.
Public auction sales fell 25%, while dealer sales declined 6%.
Private sales, however, surged 14%, a sign of quiet power plays behind the scenes.
🎯 Insight: The art world's glittering top-end slowed significantly, revealing cracks in its once-bulletproof aura. But not all was lost—dealers under $250K turnover grew by 17%, showing promise in the more accessible segments.
🌍 Shifting Centers of Power: US, UK, and China
The US remains dominant with 43% of market share, despite a 9% dip in sales.
The UK reclaimed the second spot (18%) from China, which plummeted 31%, its lowest level since 2009.
France, Japan, and South Korea had mixed results, with Japan posting a rare 2% growth.
🌐 Takeaway: Traditional Western markets remain resilient, but emerging Asian markets show volatility. Regional dynamics now hinge as much on politics as they do on taste.
🧠 The Thoughtful Collector Emerges
UBS notes a generational shift in collecting behaviors. Wealthy millennials and Gen Z buyers are increasingly:
Purpose-driven in their acquisitions,
Motivated by digital literacy, environmental values, and impact, not just prestige.
💡 Trend to Watch: The "Great Wealth Transfer" is already altering the DNA of the collector class. The next-gen collector isn’t just buying an artwork—they’re buying a story, a stance, and sometimes, a cause.
💻 Online Art Sales: Plateau or Power Move?
Online sales dropped 11% to $10.5B but held 18% market share—double pre-pandemic levels.
Dealers’ own platforms drove 17% of their total sales.
Notably, nearly half of online sales were to new buyers.
🚀 Omnichannel or Bust: The digital channel isn’t dead—it’s matured. Think hybrid, seamless, and socially driven. Galleries without strong digital presence risk irrelevance.
🖼️ Art Fairs: Still Worth the Jet Lag?
Fairs accounted for 31% of dealer sales, up from 2023.
Overseas fair sales increased by 2%, showing their importance in forging cross-border connections.
Yet, whispers persist around rising costs, shrinking returns, and “fair fatigue.”
✈️ Observation: Physical presence still matters. But smart, targeted fair strategies (rather than full-circuit burnout) will be the new norm.
🔮 The Road Ahead: Resilience, Not Rebound
Despite headwinds—tariffs, political unrest, slowing economies—the outlook isn’t entirely bleak:
The market still rests 14% above its 2020 low.
Transaction volume actually grew by 3%, showing greater accessibility and entry-level activity.
Cautious optimism underpins 2025 expectations, especially in light of falling inflation and more stable financial markets.
🪞 Reflection: If 2022 was the champagne year, 2024 was the hangover. But beneath the surface, the art world is recalibrating, adapting to new buyer values and realigning itself with global shifts in wealth and culture.
✍️ Final Word: Art as an Antidote, Not Just an Asset
The 2025 Art Market Report may appear numeric and technical—but to us, it’s a map of transformation. Art is no longer just a luxury product or an alternative asset class. It’s a mirror, a signal, a sanctuary. As markets cool and values shift, the question for all of us is: What kind of art world do we want to build next?
Here are some complementary comments from The Art Bystander on the art market moving forward.
🌐 2025 and Beyond: Art in an Age of Trade Wars and Power Plays
As we look ahead, the art world faces not just economic recalibration—but a reshaping of its very foundations. The 2025 Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report warns that we may be entering a “zero-sum world,” where global cooperation gives way to protectionism, and art becomes a pawn in larger geopolitical chess games.
Here’s what to watch as the future unfolds:
🛃 The Return of Tariffs and Nationalism
With the Trump administration back in power, the U.S. has reintroduced tariffs on Chinese and EU goods—some of which directly impact cultural items such as prints, photographs, and lithographs.
The EU is retaliating, proposing tariffs on American artworks, furniture, wine, and more.
Countries like Italy risk isolating their own art markets by keeping VAT on art sales at 22%, far higher than France’s 5.5% or Germany’s 7%.
⚠️ Implication: Cross-border sales may become costlier, slower, and more legally complex, particularly for mid-tier dealers and collectors navigating increased compliance and bureaucracy.
💼 Private Sales Will Flourish
In uncertain environments, private sales—whether via dealers or auction houses—offer the discretion, flexibility, and stability that public auctions increasingly lack.
In 2024, private sales by auction houses grew 14%, defying the general market downturn.
Expect more collectors to avoid the spotlight and operate quietly behind the scenes.
🔐 Strategic Play: For collectors and dealers, forging strong private networks and cultivating trusted advisory relationships will be essential in a fragmented world.
🧾 Legal, Tax, and Cultural Policy Tightening
The end of favorable tax treatments (like the carried interest loophole) and 1031 exchanges in the U.S. will affect high-net-worth collectors.
More repatriation claims and tighter cultural heritage laws may lead to increased scrutiny on provenance and historical ownership.
🕵️ Reality Check: Expect growing pressure for due diligence and transparency—especially in museum acquisitions and private sales involving antiquities or non-Western art.
🔥 Hot Zones for Growth
Amid uncertainty, some bright spots are emerging:
Japan, with 2% year-on-year growth, could become a safe haven for art investment in Asia.
Digital-savvy collectors are pushing for innovation: immersive online experiences, blockchain verification, and community-driven platforms.
🧭 Where to Bet: Watch for regional fairs, platforms blending tech and storytelling, and galleries that speak to new collector values—social impact, authenticity, and long-term vision.
🧠 The Bigger Question: What Is Art For in a Fragmented World?
As geopolitical divisions grow and global trade faces unprecedented friction, art may no longer travel as freely—but ideas still can. The report hints that while the flow of objects might slow, the flow of meaning and connection could deepen.
💬 Reflection: As artists, curators, and collectors, we may be called upon not just to navigate this new world, but to shape it. In a time of border walls and political noise, art can still be the bridge.
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